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International

Spanish study, There will be a second wave of coronavirus

COVID-19, Spain suffers a second wave of the epidemic that could reach the rest of Europe in the coming days, warns a study of a hospital and a university in the Spanish region of Catalonia (northeast).

The Germas Trias i Pujol University Hospital (Can Ruti), Badalona (Barcelona), and the Polytechnic University of Catalonia (UPC) have already sent the report to the European Commission. These research centers explain that the effect of bars and restaurants could have great repercussions on the evolution of epidemics, where the measures are respected much less than in other circumstances, such as interpersonal safety distance and the use of a mask.

Titled "COVID-19 Analysis and Prediction for EU-EFTA-UK and Other Countries", the study warns European authorities that the current moment is crucial to halt the second wave and that if not, the could return to a situation similar to that of March, when the uncontrolled transmission of COVID-19 broke out.

The researchers wonder why Spain leads the number of cases in the second wave, a country with high temperatures in the summer, when more life is made outdoors, since the contagion rate is 20 times lower in this case than in spaces closed. The key is that Spain lifted mobility restrictions, especially between provinces, before other European Union countries at a time when "the rate of positive cases could be three times higher than what was actually being detected" and the Social activity increased markedly, according to the researchers.

The entire country remained in a state of alarm for more than three months, since mid-March, with severe limitations on the movement of people, which gradually eased at the end, until it disappeared completely on the 21st.

Spain remains distant among European countries by number of cases since the pandemic began (more than 500,000), followed by the United Kingdom (more than 340,000) and, above all, by incidence in the last 14 days per hundred thousand inhabitants, 216.8 infections, ahead of France (98.2), Romania (69.9), Ukraine (65.7), Belgium (49.2) and the Netherlands (40.4).

 

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